The now-infamous overtime loss to Las Vegas in Week 18 can serve as a stepping stone for the Los Angeles Chargers, entering Year 2 under head coach Brandon Staley.
It was a massively missed opportunity and has the potential to be a chip on the shoulder of this young and exciting team. That said, the Bolts’ floundering in the finale wasn’t a one-off. The Chargers botched spots against Houston and Denver and lost in OT to Kansas City in the weeks leading up to that season-ending result, perpetuating the culture of collapsing that has hung over this franchise for years.
The talent is there to flip the script in L.A. and get the Chargers to the postseason. Los Angeles’ stars rival those shining on the Hollywood Walk of Fame, with Justin Herbert at QB, pass rusher Joey Bosa, and Derwin James manning safety.
The Chargers’ NFL odds indicate a successful season, and some preseason projections have them as a Super Bowl or bust squad in 2022. We find out if the Bolts are positive or negative in our Los Angeles Chargers NFL betting preview.
Los Angeles Chargers futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +1,000 |
| To win conference | +550 |
| To win division | +250 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10.5 (Under -120) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -200 / No +175 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC West (+250)
The Chargers have been a popular pick to win a loaded AFC West this offseason, with the divisional price opening around +375 and slimming as low as +215 at some books.
By the time I get around to writing these team previews, the bulk of the futures value is gone. That said, getting the Bolts as big as you can right now sets up for a solid mid-season hedge on the Chiefs’ adjusted divisional odds.
Kansas City has one of the toughest opening schedules in the league, and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see KC sitting below .500 by the time a Week 8 bye rolls around (@ ARZ, vs. LAC, @ IND, @ TBY, vs. LV, vs. BUF, @ SF).
The Chargers have the chops to win this division on their own, but a play on them now and a bet on the Chiefs to win the AFC West midway through the year could set you up for profit, given Kansas City has a much softer second half to the schedule and the Bolts’ road gets rougher.
Los Angeles Chargers betting overview
What will win bets: Pass defense
Bosa went total John Wick as a one-man army in 2021, recording 10.5 sacks but also forcing seven fumbles, all the while drawing double teams from pass protections.
The Chargers added Khalil Mack on the other side, which forces opposing protectors to pick their poison. If Mack can stay healthy, he should also benefit from all the attention Bosa warrants. Those two pass rushers could have extra time to get to rival QBs considering the quality of the L.A. secondary.
Derwin James is a sideline-to-sideline superstar, and the addition of dangerous corner J.C. Jackson can nullify top receiving threats and leave passers as sitting ducks as they work through progressions.
This should cause a climb in chaos, better known as game-changing plays — sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions — which is something the Bolts were light on last season. If you look at the best bets from 2021, many of them also ranked near the top in takeaways.
What will lose bets: Run defense
It won’t matter how disruptive the pass defense is or how potent the scoring attack pans out if the Chargers can’t figure out how to stop gushing gains on the ground. Los Angeles finished 2021 watching foes own a 47.2% success rate on handoffs (worst in the NFL), which meant 4.6 yards per carry allowed.
That trickled down to rival teams constantly converting on third and fourth down, extending drives, siphoning all the gas from this Bolts defense, and keeping Herbert and the offense powerless on the sideline. The Chargers added some great pieces to the pass rush and secondary this offseason, but the defensive line didn’t receive the same love.
Early reports out of camp sound good, but we’ll know just where this run stop unit stands in Week 1 against the Raiders, who ran all over L.A. in that Week 18 finale (174 yards).
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Los Angeles Chargers game-by-game odds
Lookahead lines vary on the Chargers, with the team set as a favorite between 11 and 13 games. L.A. is most notably showing up as underdogs in some “too close to call” contests that are a pick’em at one book and giving them the points at another (Week 10 at San Francisco and Week 18 at Denver).
Even the strength of schedule ratings can’t come to a consensus on the Chargers’ 2022 slate, sitting between 10th and 20th in strength of schedule. I’m leaning toward an uphill climb for the Bolts. They’re not just facing the AFC West gauntlet and drawing the NFC West in non-conference play but also a series of sticky schedule spots, including three pairs of back-to-back road games.
The Bolts were 8-9 against the spread in Staley’s first season, starting the year 4-1 ATS before dragging bettors over a 4-8 ATS finish, capped by the Week 18 implosion against the Raiders. That mark includes a 4-7 ATS count as betting favorites, making the franchise just 20-28-1 ATS (42%) as the chalk since moving to L.A. in 2017.
| 1 | vs. Las Vegas | -3.5 | 52 |
| 2 | @ Kansas City | +3 | 53 |
| 3 | vs. Jacksonville | -9 | 49.5 |
| 4 | @ Houston | -8.5 | 47.5 |
| 5 | @Cleveland | -3.5 | 47.5 |
| 6 | vs. Denver | -3 | 48.5 |
| 7 | vs. Seattle | -9 | 47 |
| 8 | BYE | ||
| 9 | @ Atlanta | -7 | 49 |
| 10 | @ San Francisco | +1.5 | 48 |
| 11 | vs. Kansas City | -2.5 | 53 |
| 12 | @ Arizona | -2.5 | 51 |
| 13 | @ Las Vegas | PK | 52 |
| 14 | vs. Miami | -5.5 | 49 |
| 15 | vs. Tennessee | -4.5 | 49 |
| 16 | @ Indianapolis | +1.5 | 50 |
| 17 | vs. L.A. Rams | PK | 51 |
| 18 | @ Denver | +1.5 | 44 |
Los Angeles Chargers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Arguably the best roster in the entire NFL: Very good QB, good skill position players, good offensive line. Defense was the question, but Khalil Mack, Joseph Day, and J.C. Jackson were big upgrades. I believe in Brandon Staley as well.
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